리버티헤럴드 -libertyherald.co.kr-
   issue 예수께서 이 나라를 살리실 것이다. Up 최종편집: 7월18일(화) 06:44    

리버티헤럴드 > > 국제·외교
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이란 핵협상, 전혀 좋지 않은 내용
[중동분석] 이란 핵협상은 최선의 결과인가?

이란과 유엔 안전보장이사회 5개 상임이사국 및 독일(이하 P5+1)은 24일(현지시간) 이란 핵프로그램과 관련해 합의해 도달점을 찾았다. 이란은 경제 제재로부터 한숨 돌린 분위기고, 미국 오바마 행정부는 최선의 합의점을 도출해 냈다고 공공연히 선언하고 있다. 그러나 과연 이것은 최선의 결정이 맞는가.

 

필자가 단언하건데 이것은 최악이나 다름없다. 우선은 핵협상 합의 주요 내용을 볼 필요가 있다. 이란은 이번 협상을 통해 다음과 같은 사항을 향후 6개월간 이행해야 한다.

 

1) 5% 이상의 고농축 우라늄 생산 중단
2) 20% 이상의 고농축 우라늄 전량 중화
3) 서부 아라크 중수로 건설 중단
4) 우라늄 농축용 원심분리기 추가 건립 중단
5) 주요 핵시설에 대한 국제원자력기구(IAEA)의 사찰 수용

 

이에 대한 반대급부로 이란은 석유관련 자산의 동결을 해제받고, 자동차나 석유화학제품 등의 수출길이 열리게 된다. 제재 완화로 인해 이란이 얻을 것으로 예상되는 경제적 가치는 61억 달러 가량으로 보고 있다.

 

94년 북미 제네바기본합의문(제네바합의)체결 당시 북한은 200만킬로와트급 경수로와 연간 50만톤의 중유를 제공받는 조건으로 흑연감소로를 동결하기로 했다. 또한 경수로 가동후 흑연감속로 시설을 완전히 폐기하기로 약속했다. 비록 조건부지만 핵무기 제조를 위한 핵심시설을 폐기하기로 약속한 것은 현 이란 핵협상보다 진보된 내용이다. 그러나 제네바합의는 정확히 8년 뒤인 2002년 10월 북한이 고농축 우라늄 시설 가동을 시인하고 NPT에서 탈퇴함으로 휴지조각이 되었다.

 

전문가들은 이란의 핵무기가 완성단계에 들어서 있다고 보았다. 결국 이번 합의로 이란은 6개월의 시간을 번데다 당장 막혀있던 자금줄까지 열게 되었다. 만약 이란에게 핵개발의 의지가 없었다면 이번 합의에서 시설 폐기의 관한 내용을 넣었을 것이다. 그러나 합의문에는 어떤 핵시설의 폐기사항도 들어있지 않았다. 게다가 가동을 중단하기로 한 농축시설은 전부가 아니다. 합의 타결 이후에도 지속적으로 운용되는 시설들은 존재한다는 소리다.

 

즉 이것은 아무리 봐도 시간벌기에 지나지 않는다. 또한 이것을 전제할 경우, 이란이 IAEA의 사찰을 성실하게 수용할지는 미지수다. 국제사회가 원하는 평화적인 그림은 어려울 것이다.

 

이번 합의로 입장이 난처해진 것은 이스라엘과 사우디아라비아다. 이란의 우선적 핵공격 타겟이었던 이스라엘은 이란 핵시설에 대한 선제타격을 준비하고 있었다. 벤자민 네타냐후 현 총리는 입지를 강화할 연립내각을 구성하면서까지 이란 핵시설에 대한 타격의지를 확고하게 굳혔다. 최근에는 사우디가 이스라엘의 공습 항로를 열어주겠다고 합의했다는 비공식 보도가 나왔다. 사우디는 적대관계인 이란의 핵문제로 인해 우방인 미국과 트러블이 있었고, 결국 대미 압박용 카드로 이스라엘의 편을 들어줬다는 분석이다.

 

이 시점에서 공습은 초읽기처럼 느껴졌다. 그러나 그때 핵협상이 타결되면서 즉각 세력 구도에 변동이 시작되었다. 이란의 시간벌이를 전제로 할 경우에도 이스라엘은 역시 공습을 감행할 것이다. 마냥 기다릴수록 핵탄두는 완성되어갈 것이고, 이란 혁명정부의 종교적 신념상 이스라엘을 직접 타격할 가능성은 상당히 높기 때문이다.

 

문제는 국제사회의 압박이다. 핵협상에 합의한 국가를 공습했다간 국제사회의 극심한 비난을 피할수 없다. P5+1에는 미국도 포함되어 있기에 이스라엘의 입장을 지지할 수 없다. 결국 공습에 있어 리스크가 증가한 셈이다.

 

최근 이란을 견제하고 미국을 압박하기 위해 이스라엘과 손을 잡았던 사우디 역시 난처한 입장에 처했다. 이란과의 적대구도만 재확인된데다 미국을 압박할 카드를 놓치고 말았기 때문이다. 실제로 이란의 핵협상과 관해 사우디 왕가는 직접적으로 불편한 심기를 드러내었다. 오바마가 2014년 총선을 의식해 지나치게 협상을 서둘렀다는 비난까지 나왔다.

 

결국 이번 협상이 좋은 결과로 이어지리라 기대하긴 매우 어렵다. 오히려 사우디와 이란의 갈등까지 불거진 상황에서 중동 문제를 더욱 복잡하게 만들 가능성이 크다. 그리고 이번 협상은 마냥 남의 일이 아니다. 익히 알려진 북한과 이란의 핵 커넥션을 보았을때 그렇다. 이번 협상 타결로 인해 북한 역시 다양한 핵 전략을 수립할 가능성을 배제할 수 없다. 결국 이번 이란 핵협상은 좋은 선례로 남을 것 같지 않다.

  
전진우(객원기자)의 전체기사  
2013년 11월27일 09시40분  

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jlgg2.18 (2017년 02월18일 21시38분)
 
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美 국무부, 남북회담 제안에 “한국 정..
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 1. 나아갈 곳이 없는 사회는 썩기 마련
 2. 동성애·좌경화...중남미 닮아가는 코..
 3. 다음세대의 미래가 수년 내 결정될 것..
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